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With oil prices rising, the oil refining industry profit space is compressed, part of the refinery has a loss. The analyst thinks, international oil prices may continue to rise, the refining industry in early 4 by the sense of cost pressures will be more obvious, if the country is to increase refined oil, the oil refining industry is not large losses. While the petrochemical enterprise oil and chemical industry profits are good, the overall performance is still expected to grow compared to the same period.
Chinese Securities News reporter learned, refined oil pricing mechanism reform in 2011 will advance again, price adjustment period is shortened to 10 days, reached the standard of refined oil price adjustment automatically increase, no longer submitted to the State Council for approval. This will enhance the domestic retail price with foreign markets with the speed of convergence to a large extent, conducive to the Petrochemical Industries Co to the downstream transmission cost and improve performance.
The bottom margin space
From Januray  start to late deterioration of the political situation in North Africa, then spread to Libya, Iran and Algeria in the mid February, the sharp rise in international oil prices. In March 9th, Brent oil prices at $112.65 / barrel; WTI oil at $104.21 a barrel. Rising oil prices lead directly to the oil refining industry profit space is compressed.
According to information flourishing energy monitoring, using Daqing crude oil as raw material in domestic refineries have a loss, the use of Oman crude oil as raw material still have a certain profit. According to the East oil and gas network monitoring, in February before the cost of crude oil average price, than in January rose about 260 yuan / ton, refining margin level of high quality oil refining of Daqing class is only 50 yuan / ton, if taking into account the other production cost has become a loss, the minimum profit period since the implementation of the price adjustment mechanism.
In March, the domestic oil refining enterprises of the crude oil cost is 5650 yuan / ton (Daqing class quality), than in February improve crude oil costs more than 300 yuan / ton, only the oil after refining margin basic tax from February after the price adjustment of 400 yuan down to 80 yuan price, deduct the cost of crude oil.
Due to the rising cost of oil refinery production enthusiasm, blow. Data shows, the local refinery operating rate is only 46.4%, expected later there is still down. Market rumors, PetroChina has issued a circular, subordinate to the refinery gasoline production price 730-800 yuan / ton acquisitions, to encourage productive with gasoline, gasoline market supply situation. Information flourishing energy analyst Liao Kaishun said, although the refinery operating rate is relatively low, but compared to the same period last year is still high, so the first half of the output will not fall.
The refining industry during the first half of the profits, analysts say, is still difficult to judge, the key to see the finished product oil price situation, is expected to sharply lower oil refining loss probability. Liao Kaishun expected, the next refined oil price time window will open in March 22nd, the real price may be in after the festival.
Of the chemical industry better
Despite the poor margin refining industry, but analysts believe that, taking into account the upstream crude oil mining, downstream chemical industry profits in good condition, the first half profit China oil, Sinopec, Shenyang chemical, Liao Tung Chemical, petrochemical, refining plate, still can increase.
Galaxy Securities analyst said, hydrocarbon downstream products prices recently, much higher than the rate of raw material naphtha prices, this opens up the petrochemical industry profit space. Olefin hydrocarbon and aromatic derivatives will lead to price increases, so that the three synthetic material profit increase, according to historical experience, which will last 1-2 years.
According to the investment securities prediction, Sinopec, China oil 2011 earnings per share were 0.9 yuan, 0.8 yuan, while in March 9th the two companies share price respectively is 8.78 yuan / share, 12 yuan / share, price earnings ratio is still relatively low, especially Sinopec. Analysts believe that, 2/3 of Sinopecs crude oil imports from overseas, is the biggest victims of rising crude oil prices, but also the oil price increases of the biggest beneficiaries, the later reform of refined oil pricing mechanism is likely to become an important catalyst company valuation repair.